China's lithium battery industry is facing an important policy change. From January 1, 2027, the export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled. The rebate rate has already been reduced from 9% to 6% as of April 1, 2026.

For overseas buyers of lithium batteries and energy storage systems, this change could lead to increased procurement activity during the second half of 2026.

When Could the Shipping Peak Come?

We expect procurement activity to increase gradually from August to September 2026, as some buyers may bring forward their purchasing plans.

However, the more significant shipping peak could occur in November and December 2026.

Customers originally planning to purchase batteries in early 2027 may choose to move their orders forward and complete production and export before the end of 2026.

This could create additional pressure on:

* Battery cell supply

* Factory production capacity

* BMS and PCS availability

* Container production

* Shipping and customs clearance

Therefore, waiting until December to place an order could increase both delivery and logistics risks.

How Should Overseas Buyers Plan Procurement?

For projects already confirmed, we recommend starting procurement planning 3–6 months in advance.

1. Confirm demand early

Estimate your battery and BESS requirements for the next 6–12 months, including projects that are highly likely to proceed.

2. Finalize technical specifications

Confirm key parameters such as:

* Battery capacity

* Cell type and brand

* BMS

* PCS

* Cooling system

* Fire protection

* Certifications

This allows suppliers to reserve production capacity in advance.

3. Reserve capacity instead of overstocking

Buyers do not necessarily need to purchase a large amount of finished batteries immediately.

A better approach is: Reserve production capacity → Schedule production → Ship in batches

This provides greater flexibility while reducing inventory pressure.

4. Arrange logistics early

For large BESS projects, production is only one part of the schedule. Shipping, dangerous goods requirements, UN38.3, MSDS, customs clearance and vessel availability should also be considered in advance.

Don't Wait Until the Last Month.

The cancellation of the export tax rebate does not automatically mean that battery prices will increase by the same percentage. Battery prices are also influenced by cell costs, raw materials, supply and demand, freight rates, and market competition.

Therefore, the goal should not be to blindly stockpile batteries.

The key is to secure reliable suppliers and production capacity before the year-end rush.

For overseas energy storage projects, especially 500kWh, 1MWh, 2MWh and larger BESS systems, early planning can help reduce delivery risks and ensure a smoother project schedule.

Final Takeaway

August–September 2026: Start supplier selection and demand forecasting.

October–November 2026: Confirm orders and reserve production capacity.

November–December 2026: Expect stronger shipping activity and potential logistics pressure.

For buyers planning to source lithium batteries or BESS systems from China, early procurement planning may be more valuable than simply chasing the lowest price.

Plan early. Secure capacity. Ship strategically.